The Diwali clash this year is arguably the most high-profile clash between two Hindi movies for a long time. Franchise films Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 and Singham Again are releasing on the big post-Diwali Friday, i.e., November 1, 2024. How are the two films faring among the audience, in the lead up to their release?

Ormax Cinematix tracks audience response to all major theatrical films in India, over the course of their campaign. Daily tracking (Mon-Fri) of the two Diwali releases is available from October 15 onwards.

The first parameter in Ormax Cinematix is Buzz, a score on a 0-100 scale that measures % audience who recalled the film unaided, when asked to recall upcoming Hindi films. Buzz is a strong indicator of the talk value of the film, i.e., the degree and effectiveness of conversations around the film among theatre-goers. The chart below shows daily movement in Buzz of the two films over the last one-and-a-half weeks.

As can be seen, there is very little to choose between the two films. Singham Again has a slender lead on this parameter, but this week, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 has closed in the gap to a negligible one.

The second parameter in Ormax Cinematix is Reach, a score on a 0-100 scale that measures   % audience who are aware of the name of the film, i.e., said ‘Yes’ when asked if they have heard of the film. On this parameter, both the films are expectedly faring very well, given their franchise equity, averaging 98% (Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3) and 96% (Singham Again) respectively.

The third parameter in Ormax Cinematix is Appeal, a score on a 0-100 scale that measures % audience who are definitely interested in watching the film in a theatre, among those aware of it. Appeal is a strong indicator of the creative strength of the campaign, i.e., the collective pull of the film’s cast, genre, music and other such aspects, as communicated via the various assets in the campaign. The chart below shows daily movement in Appeal of the two films over the last one-and-a-half weeks.

Here too, there is very little to choose between the two films, with Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 being ahead by a slender margin on some days, and both films being equal on other days.

Buzz, Reach & Appeal are audience research parameters, and this 'equal' performance suggests that audiences are excited equally about the two films. On Ormax Heartbeats, our weekly music charts, new songs from both films entered the Top 5 this week, with Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 title song taking the no. 3 position, ahead of Jai Bajrangbali from Singham Again at no. 5. Songs from Stree 2 continue to hold the top 2 positions.

If we look at other data sources outside our own data, the close competition between the two films continues. The chart below is a snapshot of Google Trends data over the past week, and we can see that Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 has been ahead at times, while both films have been equal at other times.

In effect, the audience side of the story is that the two films have similar positive anticipation, a week before their release. If there's a major difference in how the two films open, it would only be about factors 'external' to the audience, i.e., division of screens and shows between the two films. On a day when many shows are expected to run on 100% capacity, these external variables can play a significant role in determining a film's box office opening. But as far as the audience are concerned, there's little to choose between Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 and Singham Again.