Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the August 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major August 2025 releases in India.

Coolie & War 2

Coolie and War 2 were the two major releases of the month, with presence across multiple languages and geographies. Coolie's forecasts were within 15% of actual in the Tamil market, and within 10% for the other markets.

War 2 under-performed in Hindi, with negative reviews and audience word-of-mouth impacting its performance on its opening day, leading to a sizeable difference between its forecast and actual performance. While holiday releases are usually immune to negative audience feedback on their first day, and the impact is felt only later, War 2 released on August 14, a non-holiday, leading to more significant impact on its  first-day performance.

Major Hindi & Malayalam Releases

Besides Coolie and War 2, there were three major Hindi and two major Malayalam releases in August 2025, whose forecast vs. actual performance can be seen in the chart below. Son Of Sardaar 2 witnesses a wider deviation of 33%, while the other four films were within 9-13% of their actual first-day box office.

There were no Hollywood, Telugu (original language), Kannada, Marathi or Punjabi releases in August 2025 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.