Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in nine major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages. Last year, we published this explainer, addressing 12 frequently-asked questions about FBO.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the December 2024 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major December 2024 releases in India. 

Pushpa 2: The Rule

Telugu film Pushpa 2 emerged as the biggest release of the year, with a cumulative gross box office opening of about ₹200 Cr. OCX predicted the film's performance with good accuracy in Hindi (within 7% of actual) and Tamil (within 4% of actual). Major releases in Telugu language report 'fixed hires' as a part of their first-day box office as an industry convention. Given this extraneous variable (that audience data cannot estimate), the 12% deviation for the Telugu version has been seen as a creditable outcome.

Other Major Hindi & Hollywood Films

Hollywood films have been struggling to open well post-pandemic, especially outside the big metros like Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Chennai. Mufasa: The Lion King has eventually gone on to sustain well at the box office. But it fell 29% short of its potential on its potential day.

Baby John, on the other hand, suffered from average to poor audience response, which didn't allow it to grow during the day on the Christmas holiday, on which the film released. This negative word-of-mouth shaved off about ₹1-2 Cr on the opening day.

Other South Indian Language Films

The openings of four major South releases in December 2024 were forecast with high accuracy, within 0-10% of the actual openings. However, the two releases on Dec 20 (UI and Marco) outperformed their FBOs. These instances will be used to sharpen our Kannada and Malayalam forecast models respectively.

Note: There were no major releases in the other three languages in which OCX tracks films, i.e., Marathi, Punjabi, and Bengali, in December 2024.