Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the December 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major November releases in India.

Major Hindi Releases

There were three major Hindi releases this month, and two of them saw a boost in their first-day box office because of inorganic methods, often termed as "corporate booking" in the industry. The term refers to the producer or their affiliates buying tickets, to boost the box office of the film. Sometimes, these tickets are given out as freebies, and at other times, they are not used at all, which means that tickets are "sold", but there are no commensurate footfalls.

Ormax Cinematix's FBO forecast model is not designed to handle this inorganic boost to the box office. Dhurandhar's first-day box office was forecast at ₹19.5 Cr nett, while its actual first-day box office ₹24.0 Cr nett has a sizeable inorganic component in it. Tu Meri Main Tera Main Tera Tu Meri was also boosted by an inorganic component in its first-day box office.

The other major Hindi release, Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon 2, opened higher than its FBO of ₹1.2 Cr nett, collecting ₹1.8 Cr nett on its first day.

Akhanda 2: Thaandavam

The second installment of the Akhanda franchise had a pan India release in December 2025. The film performed as per its forecast in the home market (AP-Telangana), with a deviation of only 9%. In Karnataka, the collections were a notch above the forecast. The collections in Kerala and the Hindi markets were minimal. 

Other Major South Releases

There were several South releases, and many of them out-performed their their forecasts, as seen in the chart below.

Of the eight releases in the chart above, five (Mark, 45, Champion, Eesha & Shambhala) released on the Christmas holiday, i.e., December 25. This is the first major instance in recent years of so many releases on December 25, and the FBO Model under-estimated the impact of this holiday because of no precedence available.

Major International Releases

The two major Hollywood releases of the month were forecast with reasonable accuracy, with Avatar: Fire and Ash being over-reported by 20%, as the succesful theatrical run of Dhurandhar prevented the film from achieving its true potential on its first day.

There were no major Tamil (original language), Punjabi or Marathi language releases in December 2025 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.