Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the February 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major February releases in India.

Major Hindi Releases

O'Romeo, the only major Hindi release of the month, opened at ₹7.4 Cr nett, just a notch (5%) above the forecast of ₹7.0 Cr nett.

Do Deewane Seher Mein over-delivered compared to its FBO due to online promotional tie-ups, whichboosted its first-day collections. 

Other Major South Releases

There were four prominent South releases in the month of February, whose FBO vs. actual performance is summarised in the chart below:

Thaai Kizhavi's actual collections were significantly higher than its forecast. The film may have drawn audiences who are not regular Tamil theatre goers. We are studying this variation to understand how learnings from it can be incorporated in the FBO Model.

Minor variations (~15%) were observed for the two Telugu releases, i.e., Funky (14%) and Vishnu Vinyasam (16%). 

There were no major International, Kannada, Malayalam, Punjabi or Marathi language releases in February 2026 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.