Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the July 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major July releases in India.

International Releases

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance of the major international releases in July 2026.

The FBO for Spider-Man: Brand New Day was under-reported by 35%, compared to actual collections. The model has been built using post-pandemic box-office data, a period in which no international film had crossed the ₹40 Cr nett mark on its opening day in India, which was the opening achieved by Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022. Spider-Man: Brand New Day has now established a new benchmark, and the model is being updated accordingly, to improve forecasts for exceptionally high-potential international releases.

The other international releases were forecast with reasonable accuracy. The Odyssey opened almost exactly in line with its FBO, at ₹17.3 Cr against a forecast of ₹17.5 Cr. The forecast for Evil Dead Burn, the other major International release of the month, was fairly accurate  (₹2.7 Cr actual vs. a forecast of ₹2.5 Cr).

Jana Nayagan

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance of Jana Nayagan across its major markets.

Jana Nayagan was an unusually difficult film to forecast because its release was affected by significant external factors. The delay in its theatrical release, the lead actor becoming the Chief Minister in the meanwhile, and the circulation of a pirated version before release, all contributed to making the film's release an atypical one. Despite these circumstances, the forecast remained close to the actual opening in several markets. Karnataka was particularly accurate, with a deviation of only 7%, while the deviations in Kerala and the Hindi version stood at 18% and 12% respectively.

Hindi Releases

There were two major Hindi releases in July 2026, whose FBO vs. actual performance is summarised in the chart below.

Dhamaal 4 opened at ₹14 Cr nett against an FBO of ₹13.2 Cr nett, resulting in a deviation of only 6%. Alpha outperformed its forecast by ₹2.0 Cr.

Other Major South Releases

There were nine other major South releases in July 2026, whose FBO vs. Actual performance is summarised in the chart below.

The model delivered decent accuracy across most films in this set, with six of the nine releases opening within 20% of their respective FBOs. Nagabandham and Rao Bahadur were particularly accurate, opening almost exactly in line with their forecasts. The largest deviation came from I, Nobody, which opened at ₹2.2 Cr gross against an FBO of ₹4 Cr gross.

There were no Kannada or Marathi films that opened at ₹1 Cr or more in July 2026.