Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the June 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major June releases in India.

Peddi

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance for the major theatrical release of the month, Peddi, across all markets.

The model forecast the film's opening with strong overall accuracy, with only an 8% deviation at an all India level. The forecast was especially accurate in the film’s primary market of AP-Telangana, where it opened at ₹53.6 Cr gross against an FBO of ₹56.8 Cr gross. The Hindi version too was forecast accurately, opening at ₹2.5 Cr nett, vs. an FBO of ₹2.6 Cr nett.

Hindi Releases

There were five major Hindi releases in June 2026, whose FBO vs. actual performance is summarised in the chart below.

The model delivered good accuracy across four of the five Hindi releases in the month. Welcome To The Jungle, Cocktail 2, Hai Jawani Toh Ishq Hona Hai, and Main Vaapas Aaunga all opened within a narrow band of their respective FBOs.

The only significant deviation in the set was Haunted 3D: Echoes of the Past, which opened at ₹2.2 Cr nett, significantly higher than its FBO of ₹1.0 Cr nett. This deviation was driven more by the unusual release-scale dynamics of the film. The film did not get a strong showcasing in national multiplex chains, and relied primarily on single screens and smaller multiplex chains for its opening. The FBO Model is built on a standard release scenario, whereby the release in national multiplex chains in a crucial input. There were been rare instances of this nature, which the FBO Model is being trained to account for.

International Releases

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance for the major international releases in June 2026.

The model was able to forecast the more conventional franchise/IP-led international releases accurately. Supergirl opened exactly in line with its FBO, at ₹1.5 Cr nett, while He-Man and The Masters of The Universe opened at ₹1.1 Cr nett, compared to an FBO of ₹1.2 Cr nett.

The deviations came from the two high-concept films in the set: Disclosure Day and Backrooms. Both films opened  higher than forecast, albeit on small bases. Both films benefitted from stronger-than-expected social media conversation and late evening footfalls, especially in metro markets. High-concept international films of this nature can see demand build very close to release, driven by online discovery, genre curiosity, and peer-group recommendation.

Other Major South Releases

There were four other major South releases in June 2026, whose FBO vs. Actual performance is summarised in the chart below.

The model delivered strong aggregate accuracy for this set. Mollywood Times, Parimala and Co, and Balan: The Boy opened almost exactly in line with their forecasts. Maa Inti Bangaram opened higher than forecast, at ₹4.2 Cr gross against an FBO of ₹3.4 Cr gross, which is a result of the positive word-of-mouth associated with the film, leading to a boost in footfalls over the course of the first day.

Overall, the chart reflects the model’s ability to size mid-scale South releases accurately across languages, with only minor deviations at an individual film level.