Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in nine major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages. Last year, we published this explainer, addressing 12 frequently-asked questions about FBO.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the November 2024 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major November 2024 releases in India. 

Hindi Releases

November was a lean month for Hindi language releases, with only three films opening at ₹1 Cr+. Our forecasts for both the major Diwali releases were within 7% of their actual box office. The Sabarmati Report outperformed the forecast by ₹30 lac.

Kanguva

Tamil film Kanguva suffered from poor reviews and audience word-of-mouth, which reflected in its collections in several key markets stagnating over the course of its opening day. Strong performance of holdover release Amaran compounded this impact, leading to sub-par opening for Kanguva, especially in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The film's post-release Ormax Power Rating (OPR), a measure of content likeability we use extensively in our Content Testing work, is a poor 35 in the original language (Tamil), and similarly low in other South Indian languages. Among Hindi audiences, the film's OPR is 47, which is higher than the South markets, but low nevertheless.

Other South Indian Language Films

The openings of the other four major South releases in November 2024 were forecast with good accuracy, being within 0-15% of actual box office openings of these films.

Hollywood Films

Moana 2 was tracking at about ₹1.5 Cr nett, till Cinema Day was announced on its release day (Nov 29). There are very few instances of major Hollywood releases on Cinema Day. Hence, Cinema Day factors from the Hindi FBO Model were used to estimate the impact of Cinema Day on Moana 2's opening. The film, however, did not benefit from Cinema Day to the same extent as Hindi films do. Moana 2's performance will set the base for future instances of Hollywood films releasing on Cinema Day.

Note: There were no major releases in the other three languages in which OCX tracks films, i.e., Marathi, Punjabi, and Bengali, in November 2024.